Tuesday, January 31, 2006

Predictions, Anyone?

I noticed this post during the weekend over at Quad Cities Back Stage.

Liberal Lion cites The Fix:

"2. Iowa's 1st District -- OPEN: All eyes in this race are on the June 6 primaries, the results of which should give us a better sense of where this contest is headed. On its face, the district should be a Democratic takeover -- John Kerry won it by seven points in 2004. Former Iowa Trial Lawyers Association head Bruce Braley (D) and state Rep. Bill Dix (R) seem like the frontrunners at the moment. Incumbent Rep. Jim Nussle (R) is running for governor. (Previous ranking: 2)"

The Lion then goes on to say:

I disagree with the notion that Bill Dix is the front runner for the GOP nod. He's raised the most money, but his GOP star power is dim. The fact that he isn't from Scott County might help him somewhat. While Kennedy and Whalin fight over the Scott County GOPers Dix can be out winning the rest of the district. Even if that is the case, its hard to see how he wins without strong support in our neck of the woods.

I agree with Liberal Lion. I concur that Dix is not the frontrunner. It seems that The Fix simply looked at the fundraising numbers and drew a conclusion based solely on that. I think anyone here would agree that the GOP race seemed wide open at the end of 2005. That said though, if the Dix strategy is to blow off Scott County and plan on winning the rest of the district, it seems risky. Scott is the biggest county in the district, and I sure don't get the impression that he is way ahead anywhere else.

On the Dem side of the race, LL said:

While I would personally like to see someone other than Braley on the ticket (do we really need another trial lawyer in the mold of Bob Rush?) he is looking mighty strong. He has a crack team. Jeff Link Braley's paid consultant. No one is better in Iowa than Link. It would be great to see Link and Grubbs square off. My money would be on Link. Throw in Tim Kaine's field director as campaign manager and Dickinson is going to have his hands full.

I don't know much about their consultants, but I have seen all the candidates. Bruce Braley certainly is formidable. Bill Gluba seems to be a bit off of center (to put it mildly). Rick Dickinson has an edge to him. I think that the money game is easy for Braley with his trial lawyer buddies, but Dickinson may be the one to watch for. Of course, none of them have received as much press as the GOP candidates, so it is hard to tell anything beyond the initial impressions and their websites.


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